The coronavirus has thrown more than its share of curveballs at business owners this year, and there’s no sign that things will return to normal any time soon. So, how do you make plans for 2021 when so much is unknown and out of your control? Consider these tips as you’re thinking about the new year.

1. Don’t expect an easy ride in 2021. So many people have their fingers crossed and are hoping for some kind of reprieve in the new year, and while it would be nice if that were true, it’s probably unlikely, as is the hoped-for V-shaped recovery to the economy. “I think our industry is living in a fool’s paradise when they say we’re going to come back next year,” says Trevor Gnesin, CEO of Top 40 supplier Logomark (asi/67866). “I don’t see any comeback before 2022. … I think next year’s going to be even tougher.”

Partly, that’s because the industry won’t be able to use PPE as an unexpected cushion to soften economic blows, he says. Plus, with many promo firms already operating on a skeleton crew, there’s little to no fat to trim from payrolls. “You can only cut so much from your labor force,” Gnesin adds.

Then, says Gnesin, there’s the issue of promo being “out of sight, out of mind” for many this year. “People used to see the necessity that they had to have promo products,” he says. “But if they haven’t been using them, why do you think next year people will suddenly come back?”

Doug Stayman, owner and president of In Your Face Apparel (asi/62494), is in no rush for the calendar year to flip either. “What’s waiting in 2021 that you want 2020 to be over with?” he asks. “I don’t see anything changing until the second or third quarter of 2021.”

Of course, not everyone in the industry agrees with those stark assessments. Jeremy Lott, president of Top 40 supplier SanMar (asi/84863), thinks 2021 will be a strong “ascending year” for the industry, with growth returning to 2019 levels. “We’re certainly preparing from an inventory and service standpoint to support a robust business that’s able to handle the rescheduled events and activities that didn’t happen this year,” he adds.

2. Plan to change your plans. When you’re strategizing for 2021, you should have a plan B – but also a C, D, E and F. Ryan Sauers, owner of Sauers Consulting Strategies, calls that ability to cut on a dime a “zig-zag mentality.” He recommends businesses return to the mindset they had when they were just starting out. “In those early months of a new thing, you don’t know what’s going to hit you next,” he says. “We’ve got to be expecting the unexpected. That’s the only way we go forward.”

That’s the tack Top 40 supplier Polyconcept North America (PCNA; asi/78897) is taking. “With so much still unknown as to the virus, vaccine timing, etc., we’re building as much flexibility into our 2021 plans as possible,” says David Nicholson, PCNA president. “This comes into play around staffing levels, operations capacity and inventory forecasts, and key investment projects. At the same time, we’re stepping up our focus and efforts to support the return to more ‘normal’ business activity. While we can’t predict when the recovery will happen, it’s important that we’re ready.”

3. Refocus on your core business – with a twist. So much of 2020 has been about the pivot to PPE, and it’s been a lifesaver, both for public health and for the promotional products businesses selling it. However, nobody is expecting the run on masks and other protective equipment to last forever. “PPE is great for right now, and it’s needed and you want to help people,” says Daniel Siegel, director of Industrial Contacts (asi/231220). “But it’s not going to be the future of our industry.”

One of the biggest risks of getting caught up in the “mad dash” to procure PPE is that you’ll lose focus on the heart of your business, Stayman says. “What could I have done if I didn’t have PPE product?” he asks. “Would I have found a better, clever way to get my core products out?”

As you plan for 2021, it might be time to go back to the basics with your business, but also brainstorm creative ways to reach new customers and reconnect with current clients. Siegel has been looking at different ways to upgrade kitting services to come up with cool, new experiences for at-home workers. He cites the example of a mailer for a virtual conference, which could include a video book of one of the panelists speaking.

The key is to stay nimble and be willing to experiment. “It’s not looking real good if you haven’t come out of this with new ideas and new ways of working,” Sauers says.

4. Push hard on marketing. Although cutting back on expenses is wise, one area that you shouldn’t trim is marketing and advertising your business. It’s no longer good enough to rely on word of mouth or expect your clients to reach out to you first. “This is not the time to duck and hide,” Sauers says.

Stayman actually hired a new marketing manager during COVID to keep In Your Face in the loop – by having an eye out for new industry buzzwords, making sure products and services are up to date and verified on industry databases and more. “In this business environment, you really, really have to manufacture a sale,” he adds.

Joyce Jagger, a decorated-apparel industry consultant known as The Embroidery Coach, says her clients – many of whom are home-based or small-size embroidery shops – have no choice but to start advertising their services online, if they haven’t done so already. Traditional avenues of networking, like local Chamber of Commerce meetings, may be few and far between, so it’s imperative to seek other ways to connect with potential clients, she says.

5. Leverage technology and be data-driven. Technology like videoconferencing, e-commerce and digital catalogs will continue to push forward in 2021. Even as areas reopen, expect that many clients may prefer meeting remotely, at least at first. “Virtual tours and shows will be part of vetting suppliers prior to an in-person show or visit,” Stayman predicts. “I think Zoom calls are going to take the place of a lot of travel for a long time. … There’s going to be a shift that won’t go back.”

With so many people working from home indefinitely, there will be a bigger push for digital catalogs as well, since the logistics of sending the bulky items to countless home offices will be too much of a hassle when the digital version is just a few clicks away from anyone in the country, he adds.

It’s also important to use customer data to help make strategic decisions about the goods and services you’re bringing to the marketplace, says Lisa Fosdick, vice president of strategic partnerships at Top 40 distributor ePromos Promotional Products (asi/188515). In such uncertain times, there’s a temptation to throw anything and everything at the wall to see what sticks, and while experimentation is a good and necessary thing right now, you have to back it up with thorough information gathering and methodical record-keeping. “To get ahead of uncertainty, we analyze clients’ buying patterns and choose the right product assortments by daily mining the data,” Fosdick says. “We continue to let the data drive our strategies to create new initiatives that position us as an influential leader in the industry.”

6. Be honest with yourself. No industry, least of all promotional products, is going to make it out of the COVID-19 crisis unscathed, and not every company will make it to the other side. It’s important to take a hard look at your numbers and the current composition of your business to determine whether you’re well-positioned to face the new year. “Is it better to join a more stable organization?” Fosdick asks. “I’ve had some painful discussions with distributors who aren’t sure if or how they’ll come out of the COVID downturn. … For distributors who were having some of their best years and were hoping for an exit strategy – possibly aligning with a bigger company for growth will be their path instead.”

Recovery in the promo industry will vary greatly depending on end-buyer industry, geography, market position and other factors, Nicholson says. “For both suppliers and distributors, those who were in a strong position going into the crisis are likely to realize outsized gains as the recovery unfolds,” he adds. “If we compare to the 2008-09 Great Recession, the recovery for the industry was rapid and relatively evenly spread across all segments. It will be different this time.”