Small businesses have endured much during the pandemic, but unfortunately it seems as though the fight isn’t over.

A new revenue report from Alignable, an online network for small-business owners, found worrisome news predicting the fate of many small businesses next season: 47% of owners say their business is in jeopardy of closing by fall 2022 if economic conditions don’t significantly improve.

As shown by the stark findings, record-breaking inflation has been more damaging to small businesses than COVID. Rent hikes, higher gas prices, labor and recession concerns, and reduced consumer spending are also presenting many challenges to these businesses, many of which never fully recovered from the pandemic.

The study also shows that about 54% of small businesses say they expect to make less money than what they earned last summer, a finding that seems to be consistent with the promotional products industry, where smaller distributors are struggling more than larger ones; in fact, 35% of distributors with annual revenue less than $250,000 a year said sales decreased in Q1.

Key industries found to have an even more intense risk of shutting were retailers (59%), construction firms (52%), car dealerships (51%), small health practitioners (51%) and restaurants (50%), according to Alignable.

What’s driving these risks? Owners cite the lack of inventory to sell due to supply chain issues, increasing interest rates and inflation.

Risk levels also seem to heighten when looking at the demographics of who owns the small business and where it’s located.

Minority-owned and woman-owned companies often face systemic, disparate challenges compared to their nonminority counterparts. The report’s data highlights these disparities, detailing how 53% of women and 52% of minorities who own their small business might not earn enough money this summer to keep them afloat for the rest of the year.

These fears of closing have been felt all over the country and even internationally. Small-business owners in Colorado (54%), Michigan (52%), Ohio (51%), Pennsylvania (51%) and Texas (51%) were found to be most in jeopardy of closing by fall 2022. In Canada, the national average of business at risk is 47%.

Alignable surveyed 4,392 small-business owners from June 10 to July 13, asking participants several questions to determine the degree of financial risk they’re facing.

The promotional products industry should take special note of these findings. Many distributors themselves qualify as small businesses; plus, a significant portion of clients are among the industries most concerned about staying afloat this fall, including healthcare, automotive and restaurants. When these industries are impacted, so is promo.