April 18, 2024
Stat Spotlight: Inflation Entrenches, Throwing Fed Interest Rate Cut Into Question
It’s part of a tricky economic reality promo firms are trying to navigate, though there’s encouraging word on jobs and GDP.
Reports of inflation’s demise appear to have been exaggerated.
Consumer price hikes came in hot again in March, demonstrating a continued sustained trend of inflation being above the Federal Reserve’s target annual rate of 2%, according to recently released data. That’s thrown into doubt whether the Federal Reserve will move forward with interest rate cuts this year – or at least as many cuts (3) as business leaders and stock watchers believed were coming.
It’s all part of a tricky economic reality that promotional products distributors and suppliers are working to navigate in the early days of the second quarter. Along with the particulars on inflation, below you’ll find the hard numbers that help make sense of where things stand on the economy, with some encouraging news to be noted regarding GDP predictions and jobs.
3.5%
The rise in the consumer price index in March 2024 relative to March 2023. CPI is an inflation gauge, measuring what consumers pay. The rate of rise was 0.3% percentage points steeper than the annual increase in February.(U.S. Labor Department)
3.8%
Annual rise in CPI in March when excluding volatile food and energy prices.(U.S. Labor Department)
0.4%
Month-over-month increase in CPI in March compared to February.(U.S. Labor Department)
Notable Quotable
“This marks the third consecutive strong reading (on consumer inflation) and means that the stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told CNBC. “In fact, even if inflation were to cool next month to a more comfortable reading, there is likely sufficient caution within the Fed now to mean that a July (interest rate) cut may also be a stretch, by which point the U.S. election will begin to intrude with Fed decision making.”
2.1%
Annual increase in the producer price index in March, the biggest gain on a yearly basis since April 2023. PPI essentially measures what’s paid at the wholesale level.(U.S. Labor Department)
0.2%
Month-over-month increase in PPI in March compared to February.(U.S. Labor Department)
2.7%
The International Monetary Fund’s newly released forecast for the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product in 2024 compared to 2023. That’s 0.6 percentage points higher than an earlier forecast.(IMF)
303,000
Number of nonfarm jobs the U.S. economy added in March. Job gains occurred in healthcare, government and construction.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
3.8%
U.S. unemployment rate at the end of March, down from 3.9% the month prior. The rate has hovered in the 3.7% to 3.9% range since August 2023.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
4%
Year-over-year increase in U.S. retail and food services sales in March 2024 compared to March 2023. On a month-over-month basis, such sales increased 0.7% in March 2024 compared to February 2024. For Q1, the sales were up 2.1%.(U.S. Census Bureau)
-1.8%
That’s the percentage decrease in U.S. industrial production in March 2024 compared to March 2023. On a monthly basis, industrial production was up 0.4% in March this year compared to February.(Federal Reserve)