The International Monetary Fund has predicted that coronavirus-related disruption will cause the United States’ gross domestic product to decline 5.9% in 2020.

The IMF, a Washington, D.C.-headquartered organization that fosters international monetary cooperation and more, made the prediction in its “World Economic Outlook” report.

IMF Economist Gita Gopinath

Released April 14, the report further predicted that the global economy will contract by 3% in 2020 – the most precipitous decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s. During the Great Recession of 2009, the global economy shrank by less than one percent, according to the IMF, which initially put the decline at 0.7% but later revised it to 0.1%.  

“It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago,” the IMF said in its report. “The Great Lockdown, as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically.”

Under a best-case scenario described as uncertain at best, the worldwide economy could rebound somewhat in 2021, expanding 5.8%, the IMF predicts. A related but also uncertain best-case scenario from the IMF has the U.S. economy returning to 4.7% growth in 2021.

Even if the potential rebounds occur next year, the IMF still forecasts that the global economy will lose $9 trillion in output over the next two years. Reuters noted that’s more than the combined GDPs of Germany and Japan.

“Advanced economies now suffering the worst outbreaks of the virus will bear the brunt of the plunge in activity,” Reuters reported. The IMF predicts that Euro Zone economies will retreat by 7.5% in 2020.

During the Great Depression of 1929 to 1932, global output fell by 10%. Industrialized countries experienced a steeper decline. GDP cratered 16% in such nations, according to IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath.

Gopinath does not believe the current crisis will reach Great Depression levels. Even so, Reuters noted that “a longer pandemic that lasts through the third quarter could cause a further 3% contraction (in the global economy) in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021. … A second outbreak in 2021 that forces more shutdowns could cause a reduction of 5 to 8 percentage points in the global GDP baseline forecast for next year, keeping the world in recession for a second straight year.”

Recent economic data has offered a sobering look at the depths of the economic throes the U.S. is already experiencing due to COVID-19 shutdowns. In March, retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever recorded in government data, CNBC reported on April 15. Meanwhile, New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all-time low, freefalling 78.2%. Across the U.S., manufacturing activity contracted in March, research from the Institute of Supply Management shows.

“The economy is clearly in ruins,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, told CNBC.