A new study from UCLA economists predicts that the United States’ economy will experience a robust rebound in the second quarter of 2021, helped along significantly by mass vaccinations against COVID-19.

While some critics call the forecast overly optimistic, the potential strong growth that the UCLA Anderson School of Management forecast predicts will be a welcome beacon of hope to many in the promotional products industry, where overall performance tends to trend in the same direction as the broader American economy.

According to UCLA economists, the economic picture in the U.S. will get darker before dawn, experiencing a “gloomy COVID winter” characterized by hardship. That will be followed by “an exuberant vaccine spring.”

Assuming that widespread vaccination of Americans will occur by summer 2021, UCLA forecasters predict that U.S. gross domestic product will increase from 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 1.8% in the first quarter of 2021.

That grudging progress will be surpassed, however, by a large 6% spike in growth in the second quarter, as vaccinations begin to set the stage for something approximating a return to pre-pandemic life. UCLA forecasters believe the U.S. will experience consistent 3% growth each quarter into 2023.

“With a vaccine and the release of pent-up demand, the next few years will be roaring as the economy accelerates and returns to previous growth trends,” said Leo Feler, a senior economist with the forecast. “We expect a surge in services consumption and continued strength in housing markets to propel the economy forward.”

Health authorities, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, have predicted that vaccinations could be available to Americans en masse by the end of March or early April. Convenience store chains predict that by the spring they’ll have vaccinations readily available at locations throughout the U.S.

Still, some health experts note that, at this point, it’s assuming a lot to think enough doses will be available and that the public will get the vaccinations at levels necessary to generate herd immunity to COVID, the Los Angeles Times notes.

Given those and other factors, some economists think the UCLA forecast is too rosy.

Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, told the Los Angeles Times that UCLA economists “make some pretty strong assumptions around the vaccine. Everything has to go right with production, distribution and consumer demand to get the vast majority of the population vaccinated in the second quarter of next year. Even by the third quarter is somewhat optimistic.”

Scott Anderson expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.3% in Q1 2021 and 2.6% in Q2. “The hangover from business shutdowns and layoffs will hit household spending the hardest after the holidays,” he said.

Benjamin Diokno, central governor of the Philippine Central Bank, recently stated that the global economic outlook has soured for the short term because of the COVID resurgence. He thinks a forecast from the International Monetary Fund that predicts the global economy will only shrink 4.4% this year is “kind of optimistic.”

“Recent events, I think, point to a deterioration rather than an improvement in the short run,” Diokno said during a virtual panel discussion at the recent Milken Institute Asia Summit. “So, I would look at the fourth quarter up to maybe the first quarter of next year as worse than the IMF forecasts.”