December 19, 2023
Stat Spotlight: A Snapshot of the Economy at Year’s End
Yes, it’s complicated. But there are bright spots.
The economy is growing and spending is up, but 62% of Americans reportedly live paycheck to paycheck and consumer sentiment, while recently improved, remains muted.
Inflation is slowing and federal interest rate increases have paused, but prices continue to climb and rates remain elevated.
Evidence that there’ll be a “soft landing” that will avoid a major recession has mounted, but there’s still leeriness about the potential for an economic downturn next year.
Indeed: On the eve of 2024, the macroeconomy – the condition of which significantly impacts the promotional products industry – is in a complicated place. These statistics will help orient you on where things stand – and what may lie ahead.
0.9%
Annual increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in November 2023, down from a yearly 1.2% rise in October. The rate is below the Federal Reserve’s target range of annual 2% inflation. PPI measures prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
2%
Year-over-year increase in core PPI in November, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
3.1%
Increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this November compared to last November. CPI tracks what consumers pay. While down a pinch from October’s annual rate increase (3.2%), the reading remains above the Fed’s target 2% annual inflation target. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
4%
The rise in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, in November 2023 relative to November 2022. That was level with October’s annual rate rise. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
“Falling inflation does not mean that prices are falling. In fact, prices for just about everything are still higher than they were before the pandemic. Housing costs, in particular, are weighing on many individuals and families.” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, to CNBC
Still Glum:
U.S. consumer sentiment is now about 39% above the all-time low measured in June 2022 but still well below pre-pandemic levels. (University of Michigan consumer research)
3
That’s the number of potential interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve is considering making in 2024. The Fed has hiked rates to help cool inflation, which has made borrowing for businesses and consumers more expensive.
4.1%
Year-over-year increase in U.S. retail sales in November. Month over month, sales were up 0.3%. (Census Bureau)
31%
The increase in intended holiday spending per person in the U.S. this holiday season compared to last year. “While the number was driven by a small number of respondents saying they will spend large sums, the gains still amount to double digits when those answers are removed,” noted the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
3.7%
U.S. unemployment rate in November, down from 3.9% the month prior. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
199,000
Number of jobs the U.S. economy added in November, up from 150,000 in October. While average monthly hiring is down from the first half of 2023, it remains solid, analysts say. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
2.1%
Predicted U.S. annual economic growth in 2023 from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest forecast. That’s a 0.3 percentage point increase over the previous forecast.
2.6%
Estimated growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2023. If accurate, that would be a slower rate of growth than Q3 (5.2%). (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)