Those hoping that robust business activity in the third and fourth quarter will offset the economic shock of coronavirus shutdown measures in the late first quarter and second quarter might want to look away.

In its first such forecast since December, the Federal Reserve this week predicted that U.S. gross domestic product will decline by 6.5% in 2020 compared to 2019. A return to growth could occur in 2021, with the economy rising by 5% over 2020, the Fed forecast.

Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve

“The Fed is clearly signaling that we are not by any means out of the woods yet,” James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, told Fox Business.

Central bankers also predicted that U.S. unemployment levels will remain elevated. They anticipate the unemployment rate to be at 9.3% by the end of 2020. The jobless rate will register in the 6.5% range in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, the forecast indicates. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment was at about a 50-year low of 3.5%.

Amid the challenging economic climate, the Fed expects that the benchmark federal fund rate will remain between 0% and 0.25% through 2022 until central bankers are “confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

Meanwhile, some other economists believe a quicker return to economic prosperity will materialize. Larry Kudlow, White House economic advisor, predicted on Thursday, June 11 that economic growth will soar in the third and fourth quarters as post-lockdown reopening initiatives take hold across the United States.

“I think you've got 20% growth in the third and fourth quarters, and I think you'll get 4% or better in 2021,” Kudlow said.

Stocks were dropping dramatically on June 11 on signs that coronavirus cases appear to be increasing in some areas that had reopened. “I know today’s a rough day, but I don’t think today is the last word,” Kudlow told Fox Business.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC on June 11 that shutting down the economy for a second time to combat the spread of COVID-19 isn’t feasible given the damage it could do.

“We can’t shut down the economy again. I think we’ve learned that if you shut down the economy, you’re going to create more damage,” Mnuchin said in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street.”