U.S. consumer sentiment beat the expectations of economists and rose sharply in early March over February, signaling that the expansion of the American economy will not soon grind to a halt, according to a survey released Friday.

While that’s great news for the promotional products industry, whose overall fortunes are often closely correlated to the relative strength or weakness of the broader economy, some analysts sounded notes of caution, saying weakness in year-over-year comparative data could point to trouble ahead. That downbeat position may have received some support from a separate federal report that said U.S. manufacturing activity declined in February.

Consumer sentiment has recovered from shutdown-fueled lows, helped by income gains for lower-income workers https://t.co/bMv9MtPHY5 pic.twitter.com/5J0U0hkHbn

— MarketWatch Economy (@MKTWeconomics) March 15, 2019

According to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, the Index of Consumer Sentiment increased 4.3% from February to a reading of 97.8 in the first couple weeks of March; MarketWatch economists were expecting a reading of 95. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions stepped up 2.5% month-over-month to 111.2. The Index of Consumer Expectations leapt 5.7% from February to 89.2 this month.

“The early March gain in sentiment was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution, whose sentiment rose to 97.4 from 90 in February,” said Richard Curtin, the economist who runs the surveys.

Still, sentiment fell among households with incomes in the top third to 98.5 in early March from 101.7 in February. “The divergence was due to a monthly jump of one-percentage point in income expectations among middle and lower incomes compared to a change of just one-tenth of a percentage point among those with incomes in the top third,” Curtin said.

Nonetheless, the overall rising income expectations, lower expected inflation rates in the year ahead, and a generally more positive feeling about the direction of the economy among all income groups indicate that “real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019 and that the expansion will set a new record length by mid-year,” said Curtin.

Still, some analysts pointed out that, while month-over-month data rose, the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Current Economic Conditions Index were down compared to March 2018, falling 3.6% and 8.3%, respectively. The expectations index was nearly flat year-over-year at a 0.5% increase. The annual declines have some concerned that a downturn could be on the horizon.

There is always a bearish indicator somewhere. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey's current conditions component--I only care about this component--is down significantly yoy. There have been only 3 times where it has suffered worse declines but we did not have a recession. pic.twitter.com/p7MIzGmeA7

— Sri Thiruvadanthai (@teasri) March 15, 2019

Meanwhile, the Fed said Friday that manufacturing production slipped 0.4% in February – the second consecutive monthly drop. Diminishing performance in the output of vehicles, machinery and furniture was primarily responsible for the drag. The manufacturing data combines with other recent disappointing reports on retail and housing numbers to suggest that fallout from the federal tax break stimulus winding down, trade war with China, the now-ended partial government shutdown and stock market uncertainty may have impacted the U.S.’s overall economic performance in February and January.