It can be difficult to find silver linings amid the grave health threats and economic carnage that the coronavirus is causing in the United States.

Still, researchers for the Federal Reserve may have just provided a few rays of hope.

In a new study for the Federal Reserve Board, the Fed’s Sergio Correia, the New York Fed’s Stephen Luck and Emil Verner of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology determined that aggressive containment measures that compel economies to slow down or stop could be better for economic growth in the long run than less restrictive measures.  

The researchers based their findings on the 1918 flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 550,000 and 675,000 Americans. They found that measures like social distancing practices, which have led to widespread event cancellations and temporary business shutdowns throughout America during the current COVID-19 outbreak, can ultimately be more beneficial to the economy over time. The study called such measures “non-pharmaceutical interventions.”

“Cities that implemented more rapid and forceful non-pharmaceutical health interventions do not experience worse downturns,” the researchers stated in their paper. “In contrast, evidence on manufacturing activity and bank assets suggests that the economy performed better in areas with more aggressive NPIs after the pandemic.”

The study also noted that aggressive NPI containment measures decreased mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. “Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic,” the researchers noted.

Even so, the study sounded some downbeat notes. For instance, using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 flu pandemic in the U.S., researchers found that more exposed areas experienced a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. “The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%,” researchers wrote. “The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels.”

The Fed’s study was released a couple days before President Donald Trump on Sunday (March 29) announced that Americans should continue to follow social distancing measures through at least April 30. These measures include avoiding all nonessential travel, going to work, eating at bars and restaurants and gathering in groups of more than 10.

FEMA and @realDonaldTrump’s administration are making sure we have the supplies we need to confront coronavirus. https://t.co/LbC6VWy8KN

— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) March 29, 2020

“During this period, it’s very important that everyone strongly follow the guidelines,” Trump said at a press briefing. “Therefore, we will be extending our guidelines to April 30 to slow the spread.”

“We can expect that by June 1, we will be well on our way to recovery,” Trump added. “We think by June 1 – a lot of great things will be happening.”