March 30, 2021
Economy Watch: U.S. Consumer Confidence Surges
Also, the IMF plans to increase its forecast for global economic growth.
The American consumer is feeling better.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, a closely watched survey of how Americans feel about current and future economic conditions, has surged to its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began a year ago.
The monthly reading for March 2021 soared to 109.7, up from 90.4 in February. It was the third straight month that the index increased, as the accelerating rollout of coronavirus vaccinations, societal reopenings, and the federal government’s COVID-driven economic relief effort buoyed spirits.
“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their short-term outlook improved significantly, an indication that economic growth is likely to strengthen further in the coming months,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ renewed optimism boosted their purchasing intentions for homes, autos and several big-ticket items.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — climbed from 89.6 in February to 110 in March. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — also improved, from 90.9 in February to 109.6 in March.
#tcbData 🛒 #ConsumerConfidence surged nearly 20 pts in March to 109.7 (1985=100), its highest rating in a year. #Consumers' assessment of:
— The Conference Board (@Conferenceboard) March 30, 2021
🌡️ Present Situation stands at 110.0 (+20.4)
📅 6-month Expectations stands at 109.6 (+18.7)https://t.co/zn7v9dUuNh pic.twitter.com/nP6gpzsv2J
Digging into the numbers a bit deeper, the Conference Board said the percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 16.1% to 18.5%, while the proportion claiming business conditions are “bad” fell from 39.7% to 30.5%. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 21.6% to 26.3%. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 22.4% to 18.5%.
It wasn’t all good news though. Some 13.3% of consumers expect their income to decrease over the next six months, up a tick from the 12.9% who thought the same in February. Inflation fears are growing too. “Concerns of inflation in the short-term rose, most likely due to rising prices at the pump, and may temper spending intentions in the months ahead,” Franco said.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based financial institution that works to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability and more, said Tuesday, March 30 that it plans to increase its estimate for global economic growth for the years 2021 and 2022.
IMF Chief @KGeorgieva highlights 3️⃣ policy priorities to give people a fair shot—a shot in the arm to end the pandemic everywhere, and a shot at a better future for vulnerable people and countries to pave the way to inclusive and sustainable recovery.
— IMF (@IMFNews) March 30, 2021
➡️ https://t.co/g1VJMy57MG pic.twitter.com/M4MOvZpY2B
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that the recent passage of the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and increasing vaccination against COVID-19 were key factors in the coming upward revision, which is scheduled to be released Tuesday, April 6.
In late January, the IMF forecast that global growth would hit 5.5% in 2021, with U.S. gross domestic product rising by 5.1% this year. In 2020, COVID-19 triggered a 3.5% decline in the global economy, according to the IMF.