May 01, 2018
Manufacturing in China Eases Slightly in April
Despite the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., China’s manufacturing sector and its export order volume slowed only moderately in April. The news comes in the weeks after the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese products and China responded with its own on more than 100 American products.
China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of the economic health of the country’s manufacturing industry, fell marginally in April to 51.4, from 51.5 in March. Analysts predicted it would read 51.3 for April. Below 50 points indicates contraction.
Nonetheless, factories filled fewer export orders in April, which may signal continued slowing as a result of several conditions, including the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. The export orders sub-index for April fell to 50.7 from 51.3 in the previous month.
“Slower growth is likely in the months ahead as the drags on economic activity from weaker credit growth and the cooling property market intensify,” said Chang Liu, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.
Economists expect overall growth in China to slow to 6.5% by the end of this year, according to Reuters, largely as a result of both a possible trade war and Beijing’s attempts to control rising debt. The economy grew at an unchanged 6.8% rate in the first quarter. The non-manufacturing purchase managers’ index rose to 54.8 from 54.6 in March.
Late last month, President Trump imposed tariffs on approximately $60 billion worth of Chinese goods; China responded in kind with its own tariffs on 106 American products, including soybeans, cars, whiskey, chemicals and beef.
Trade tensions could also affect the promo industry.
“Most everybody agrees that the rules for trade need to be transparent and fair,” Jonathan Isaacson, president of Top 40 supplier Gemline (asi/56070), told Counselor when the tariffs were first announced. “However, most people also agree that trade wars do not really benefit anybody long-term. Regardless of the trade issues, pricing is going to increase due to rising inflation and the declining value of the dollar.”