After weeks of intense negotiation in the ongoing North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) revamp process, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has implied that talks may continue into 2019.

House Speaker Paul Ryan had set an informal deadline of May 17 for the U.S. to send a new deal to Congress, in time for lawmakers to vote on it in this midterm election year, but discussions continued past that date.

“Whether we pass it in this Congress or we pass it in the new Congress, the president is determined that we renegotiate NAFTA,” Mnuchin said in an interview on Sunday. He added that “we are focused on negotiating a good deal and we’re not focused on specific deadlines. We’re still far apart but we’re working every day to renegotiate this agreement.”

Speaking with FOX Business last week, Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau was still optimistic about getting a deal done in the coming weeks, saying, “It’s right down to the last conversations. And we know those last conversations in any deal are extremely important. So I’m feeling positive about this.”

But U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer, who has headed talks for the U.S., responded immediately that an agreement was in fact not forthcoming. “The NAFTA countries are nowhere near close to a deal...There are gaping differences,” he said in a statement. “We of course will continue to engage in negotiations, and I look forward to working with my counterparts to secure the best possible deal for American farmers, ranchers, workers and businesses.”

Among the major areas of contention are auto manufacturing, pharma pricing, dairy production, foreign purchase tax rates, dispute resolution and intellectual property policy. One of the most divisive issues is the U.S.-proposed sunset clause, which would compel each of the member countries to agree every five years to keep NAFTA. If they failed to agree, the deal would be dissolved. Mexico and Canada do not support the idea, citing economic uncertainty. “Our view is that this is absolutely unnecessary,” said Chrystia Freeland, the Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister and the top negotiator for Canada.

Mnuchin has said that one of the Trump administration’s alternatives is a “skinny NAFTA,” one that would not require Congressional approval, though for now the administration “is still focused on a new NAFTA that would go through Congress.” The original 1994 deal was passed by Congress, which means that a major overhaul would need Congressional approval. A pared-down version would feature some revamped aspects and leave others largely unchanged.

The wrangling taking place currently has to do with the political climates in the three countries, rather than any procedural calendar, Dan Ujczo, international trade and customs lawyer with cross-border firm Dickinson Wright, told Counselor. Mexico has a presidential election on July 1 and U.S. midterm elections take place on November 6.

“Ratification of anything in an election year is tricky,” Ujczo said, adding that Canada’s presidential election isn’t until next year, which is when NAFTA would become a more serious political issue for that country. “It’s no coincidence that Mnuchin is talking about 2019, because now the U.S. is using that as leverage,” he added. “After Memorial Day, the three countries will take a longer view on getting it right. I think in the next week we’ll see them finishing up the chapters that are done, frame the difficult issues and get a deal on the steel and aluminum tariffs. It’s going to be the status quo until the political calendar becomes more favorable. But I think we’re at a ‘now, 2019 or never’ moment.”

Industry companies are also monitoring recent NAFTA developments. Larry Cohen, CEO of Top 40 distributor Axis Promotions (asi/128263), says that for most companies that do cross-border business, it will mean operating under the existing state of affairs. But strategic moves to relocate operations, either in Canada or Mexico or through reshoring, are still clouded by uncertainty. “Businesses now might not be sure if they should move any operations over the border, or perhaps bring things back here,” he says. “Uncertainty creates challenges, especially for suppliers who’ve moved their operations or are thinking about moving them.”

Russell Bird, promotional product expert at The Promo Addict (asi/302225) in Sherwood Park, AB, says any modifications to NAFTA will be accompanied by pricing increases. “Changes to NAFTA will definitely impact how our business is done,” he told ASI Canada. “Import duties play a huge role in our purchasing decisions, so if there are increases to duties, then I’m confident that our U.S. purchases would decrease, as we would likely move to more direct import from China or increase our Canadian purchases.”