November 28, 2018
Consumer Confidence Slows in November
Consumer confidence can bellwether economic trends, which carry importance for the promotional products industry.
For the first time since June, consumer confidence among Americans fell this month. That’s according to the Conference Board, a not-for-profit business and economic think tank that published its monthly Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday.
The Index fell to 135.7 in November from 137.9 in October, while consumer expectations also dropped from 115.1 in October to 111 this month. Twelve-month inflation expectations rose to 4.9%. According to Bloomberg, a few indicators might have driven the decline: orders for business equipment missed forecasts for the third time in recent weeks and unemployment claims increased. Declines in the stock market and an ongoing trade war with China may also be to blame.
@ConferenceBoard : Consumer sentiment pulled back from its highest level since Sept. 2000, with the headline index down from 137.9 in Oct. to 135.9 in Nov. Still, Americans continued to be mostly positive overall, even with expectations easing somewhat. https://t.co/5xdqCBTE8Y pic.twitter.com/fepreMkqeq
— Chad Moutray (@chadmoutray) November 27, 2018
Despite the decreases, the study’s Present Situation Index, which is based on an assessment of current business and labor market conditions, improved from 171.9 to 172.7. The number of respondents that expect more jobs in the coming months also rose, albeit slightly, from 22.3% to 22.8%. Still, those who expect fewer jobs also increased, from 10.6% to 11.1%.
Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents to the Conference Board’s Index survey who stated that business conditions will be better in six months declined from 26.3% to 22.5%, a five-month low. The number that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 7.2% in October to 8.8% in November. The number expecting higher incomes fell from 24.7% to 21.5%.
However, according to the Conference Board, the Index remains at a significant high, indicating that there’s still reason to be optimistic. “Despite a small decline in November, consumer confidence remains at historically strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators, in a statement. “Overall, consumers are still quite confident that economic growth will continue at a solid pace into early 2019.”