The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a new forecast that predicts the United States gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 4.3% in 2020 – an improvement over a forecast from June that indicated the decline would be 8%.

Gita Gopinath, chief economist, IMF

The upward revision is part of an improved prediction for the global economy. It’s now expected to retreat 4.4% this year, compared to the June forecast of 4.9%.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said the change in the global prediction is a result of better-than-expected performance in advanced economies and China during the second quarter and indications that the recovery quickened in the third quarter.

Still, Gopinath cautioned that much remains uncertain, and the forecasted declines, while improvements over what was previously feared, still represent deep-cutting recessions. “While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven and uncertain,” Gopinath said.

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She noted that “prospects have worsened significantly in some emerging market and developing economies.” India’s economy is expected to erode 10% in 2020, while emerging market and developing countries will experience a collective economic retreat of 3.3%, predicts IMF, a Washington, D.C.-based international organization that works to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability and more.

Advanced economies in Europe are set for a dour 2020. The U.K., France, Italy and Spain are on track to experience contractions of around 10%.

Noting that the economic recovery “is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread,” the IMF slightly downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 from 5.4% to 5.2%.

“With renewed upticks in COVID-19 infections in places that had reduced local transmission to low levels, reopenings have paused (as seen in parts of Europe, New York City and elsewhere), and targeted shutdowns are being reinstated. Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels,” the IMF said.

Meanwhile, the IMF expects advanced economies to see national debt soar to 125% of GDP by the conclusion of 2021. Low interest rates and the hoped-for increase in economic activity in 2021 could help pay off some of that, according to the IMF, which added that “governments may need to increase the progressivity of their taxes and ensure that corporations pay their fair share of taxes while eliminating wasteful spending” to ensure debt doesn’t overwhelm in the medium-term.