Trade war, recent quarterly declines in U.S. GDP growth, and manufacturing output concerns are among the factors that have some economists predicting that a recession is poised to strike.

Still, a majority of chief executive officers at U.S. businesses disagree. That’s according to a recent study from Chief Executive, which revealed that more than 60% of surveyed CEOs do not believe a recession will occur in the year ahead. The company leaders said strong economic fundamentals and the current and expected performance of their own businesses suggest growth will continue.

CEOs say they are still concerned with the volatility and uncertainty of global and domestic politics but find confidence in stable macroeconomic fundamentals and remain hopeful for progress on China-U.S. trade talks. https://t.co/Odd11TcRLC

— Chief Executive (@ChiefExecGrp) September 23, 2019

“Talking about [a] recession is a natural reaction to an 11-year bull market,” Barry Naft, president and CEO of Environment International and former Dow president, told Chief Executive. “Recession means two quarters of consecutive negative growth. Let’s talk about that after one quarter; right now, that seems absurd.”

The findings were part of Chief Executive’s larger CEO Confidence Index, a monthly survey of CEOs. Overall, CEOs’ perception of current business conditions remained the same in September as in August – 6.8 out of 10 on a scale of one to 10, with 10 being the best. Still, while most CEOs don’t foresee an imminent recession, their confidence about future business conditions was down 12% from a year earlier (September 2018), registering 6.2 out of 10.

See the full report.

Research and graphic by Chief Executive.