The way Rich Carollo sees it, the tariffs on Chinese imports present an opportunity for industry suppliers that specialize in made-in-the-USA promo products. The president of Lion Circle (asi/67620), which manufactures its line in Chicago, believes products produced in the states will become increasingly attractive to distributors in 2019 because of the tariffs.

Price increases could help close the cost gap to an extent with cheaper Chinese goods. Plus, stateside-produced products will offer cost stability – no up or down pricing based on tariff changes, says Carollo. “Once distributors start really feeling the impact, they’re going to look for alternatives, and that gives the made-in-the-USA guys a chance to shine,” he says. “Fast turn times, no tariff surcharges and stability in pricing are all things we can market and provide.”

Ultimately, such factors could lead to an increase in industry-wide sales of made-in-the-USA branded merchandise next year. “We do expect to see an increase in these items toward the end of 2018 and throughout 2019,” says Melissa Ralston, chief marketing officer at BIC Graphic (asi/40480).

Still, distributors and suppliers widely believe the tariffs aren’t going to prompt a renaissance in made-in-the-USA promo products production or sales of domestically made items to end-clients. As noted, the shift in production is likely to be from China to other lower-cost countries (see article). “The supply chain in the U.S. is not as robust or price competitive,” says Memo Kahan, president of Top 40 distributor PromoShop (asi/300446).

While sales might increase, industry executives generally believe that U.S.-made products will remain a small niche within the promo industry. “I assume there will be a small shift to USA goods, but nothing substantial,” says Kahan. Jay Deutsch’s opinion coalesces with Kahan’s view. “We’d like to believe that made-in-America will benefit from the trade war, but we don’t see much of a correlation or economic reality where those opportunities will be material,” says the CEO of Top 40 distributor BDA (asi/137616).

Domestic-produced and union-made merchandise has an important part to play in the promo industry, adds Deutsch, but it doesn’t replace the need for the cost-effective production expertise and the merchandise that’s brought in from abroad, particularly China. “You can’t just flip a switch and become a manufacturing country again,” says Kathy Finnerty Thomas, president at Stowebridge Promotion Group (asi/337500).