January 31, 2023
Stat Spotlight: IMF Says Economic Growth Will Slow in 2023 But Not as Bad as Previously Feared
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its forecast for global and U.S. GDP growth, while also predicting that inflation will slow.
The 2023 economic outlook is looking a bit brighter, though the forecast is still gray.
The International Monetary Fund, a financial agency of the United Nations and global financial institution, just released new forecasts for global, regional and national economic performance in 2023.
The good news is that the rate of inflation is expected to slow and economic growth predictions for the world and the United States in particular have improved. The upgrades are due, in part, to the lifting of COVID-driven societal restrictions in China and continued resilience to inflation in key advanced economies, including the U.S.
The bad news is that GDP expansion is expected to slow relative to 2022 and inflation to remain above pre-pandemic average increases. Here’s a look at the numbers:
2.9%
IMF’s forecasted global economic growth for 2023. That’s an improvement of 0.2% over the IMF’s previous forecast of 2.7%, but would be down from an estimated 3.4% increase in 2022.
1.4%
Forecasted gross domestic product growth in the United States in 2023. That’s better than an earlier forecast, but would be down from the estimated 2% growth in 2022.
6.6%
Anticipated global inflation rate in 2023. While still above pre-pandemic levels of 3.5%, the inflationary increase would be down more than two percentage points from 2022’s 8.8%.
“The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress.” IMF
5.2%
Projected economic growth in China. That’s up from a previous forecast of 4.4% and would surpass 2022’s 3% performance.
1.5%
Forecasted GDP growth in Canada.
0.7%
Anticipated European zone economic expansion in 2023.
3.1%
Projected global GDP growth in 2024.