Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the United States’ gross domestic product. So, consumer sentiment can potentially be a gauge and a bellwether, reflecting what’s going on with the economy and what’s going to happen. With the promotional products industry tending to trend in the direction of the broader American marketplace, consumer sentiment becomes worthy of promo pros’ attention.

And the latest word on consumer sentiment? It was down a pinch to start November, but still strong.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) slipped 0.3 ps to 98.3 in November 2018. The Sentiment Index remained higher thus far in 2018 (98.4) than in any prior year since 2000 #pruss5015michconf pic.twitter.com/0yfz8bvo0Y

— pruss (@pruss5015) November 9, 2018

On Friday, the University of Michigan released the preliminary November results for its Index of Consumer Sentiment. The index tallied 98.3. While down from 98.6 in October, the November reading is still considered good. It was also better than economists’ predictions of 98.

University of Michigan Nov Prelim #Consumer Sentiment 98.3 vs 98.0 expected - Much better than pundits specualted on this as included stockmarket rout $SPX $USDJPY Update https://t.co/JN0ZHby4zu pic.twitter.com/x2eaM5ZnvZ

— Traders Community (@TradersCom) November 9, 2018

The early November performance kept the index on track to have its best year since 2000.

The @WSJ on the state of the US #consumer , including what to draw from the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment data.https://t.co/iJofoCxIBJ#economy #markets #consumers #sentiment #confidence pic.twitter.com/yU4QLsgZNu

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 9, 2018

Even so, the survey’s Chief Economist Richard Curtin pointed out that there are some caveats.

“The stability of consumer sentiment at high levels acts to mask some important underlying shifts,” Curtin said in a statement. “Income expectations have improved and consumers anticipate continued robust growth in employment, but consumers also anticipate rising inflation and higher interest rates. While these positive and negative changes act to offset each other in the aggregate, younger consumers have benefited most from more positive income trends and older consumers are more likely to complain about the erosion of their living standards due to rising prices; rising interest rates weigh heavily on younger consumers who are more likely to borrow, and older consumers are more likely to benefit from higher returns on their savings.”

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s related index of Current Economic Conditions came in at 113.2, virtually identical to last month but down 0.3% from a year ago. Michigan’s Index of Consumer Expectations registered 88.7, a 0.7% slip from October and down 0.2% from a year ago.

In a positive note, Curtin said that in November the working age population, those between ages 25 and 54, anticipated an annual gain in nominal household income of 3.6% -- the best in the past decade. That’s a good sign, as nominal income expectations are critical to driving spending, Curtin said.

From Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan.

What’s it all mean for promo pros? While there are potential headwinds to watch out for, including the limping stock market and inflation, consumers have generally remained upbeat throughout the year. That could possibly help lead to a strong end of 2018/early 2019 for the economy, which would likely benefit the promo industry.