September 15, 2023
Stat Spotlight: Inflation Stubbornly Persists
Rising fuel costs were a key factor in an acceleration in August, but some analysts say there are signs that it’s on a gradual cooling trend.
Inflation matters to the promotional products industry.
Rising consumer and wholesale prices can reflect or harbinger potential impacts on everything from the wage needs of workers and what businesses pay to keep the lights on at their facilities, to what it costs to make and deliver products.
National data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests overall inflation for consumer and wholesale prices accelerated in August, though underlying core inflation slowed somewhat – a good sign, according to certain analysts.
“If you look at what’s going on underneath the surface, core inflation continues to gradually cool,” according to David Kelly, chief global strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “I don’t think people should look at it as some kind of revival of inflation pressure.”
Nonetheless, inflation remains higher than it was throughout the decade of 2010 through 2020. Furthermore, the August numbers make clear that the Federal Reserve’s series of interest rate hikes haven’t yet tamed inflation to the point that it’s tracking at the target rate of 2%.
Inflation – By the Numbers
3.7%
Increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2023 compared to the same month the year prior. The rise represented a rate-of-increase acceleration over July, when the CPI rose 3.2% year over year.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
0.6%
Month-over-month increase in consumer prices in August. That inflation rate was steeper than in July, when prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
4.3%
The annual jump in core CPI inflation in August. Core inflation removes energy and food prices because of their volatility. The year-over-year increase in August was down from a 4.7% rise in July.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Perspective: “Over the past three months, core CPI has risen 2.4% at an annual rate, down from 5% during the prior three-month period, and the lowest such rate since March 2021.”
– The White House
10.6%
Month-over-month rise in retail gasoline costs in August. This was a key driver of the overall rise in inflation.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
1.6%
Year-over-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in August, up from a 0.8% increase in July 2023. PPI measures prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Perspective: “Overall, the big picture is that inflation is much lower than last year. The (Federal Reserve) interest rate hike action has had impact. That said, they’re not across the finish line.”
– Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist for US Bank, to NBC.
0.7%
Monthly increase in the PPI in August. That was above the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% rise and was the biggest single-month increase since June 2022.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
2.2%
Year-over-year rise in core PPI inflation in August, down from a 2.4% increase in July. Core inflation excludes volatile things like energy prices.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
0.2%
Month-over-month rise in core PPI inflation in August, down from 0.3% in July.(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)