September 20, 2024
Holiday Outlook: Global Promo Suppliers Talk Q4 Trends, Challenges & Sales Expectations
Moderated by ASI’s Michele Bell, this PromoAlliance webinar featured an in-depth discussion with four supplier executives from the U.S., U.K. and EU.
Saadia Bryant had some good news for promo distributors eager for strong sales during the holiday gifting season.
Even if clients have been more cautious with their merch spend in 2024, either holding off purchasing or investing in lower-priced items, wallets tend to open wider as the fourth quarter nears, with buyers eager to spend budgets before year’s end and to provide higher-quality branded gifts recipients will love, Bryant said during a Sept. 19 webinar from PromoAlliance.
“We’ve seen that there’s less price sensitivity when it comes to holiday gifting,” said Bryant, vice president of marketing, product and design at Massachusetts-headquartered Counselor Top 40 supplier Gemline (asi/56070).
Just what are those end-clients after? Bryant said home-based items like charcuterie boards, cozy blankets, various items from retail brands and practical yet stylish bags, especially backpacks. And, they often want a collection of items pulled together into attractively packaged kits that create eye-popping unboxing moments.
“It’s something more than just an item; it’s a personal touch, maybe with a notecard included, that really feels like an experience,” Bryant said of the kit gifting.
The Gemline executive offered such insights during the latest quarterly webinar from PromoAlliance, the strategic partnership between ASI in the United States, PSI in the European Union and Sourcing City in the United Kingdom.
The alliance acts with a unified commitment to promote networking and a sharing of promo industry knowledge and data on a global level – and that’s just what the most recent webinar offered.
The webinar, hosted by Michele Bell, ASI’s senior vice president of content & global alliances, featured panelists from multiple countries: U.S.-based Bryant was joined by Andrew Langley, managing director of U.K.-headquartered supplier Juniper Trading Products Ltd.; Kathrin Halfar, CEO of Germany-based supplier Halfar; and Rob Watson, CEO of U.S.-based Counselor Top 40 supplier Vantage Apparel (asi/93390).
Holiday Product Trends
Like Bryant, the panelists offered insights into trends they expect to be big in the final months of 2024. Halfar said that from her firm’s lines, bags – again, emphasis on backpacks – are much sought-after. But not just any bags. They need to be durable and made to high-quality standards, composed of more earth-friendly materials, like natural fibers, and free of PVC.
For Juniper, notebooks will again be the strongest sellers, said Langley. But like Halfar, Langley said end-clients are increasingly demanding that the notebooks – and other products – be made with sustainable materials. Buyers in the United Kingdom – and even more so in France, where Juniper also does business – are especially desirous of items that are produced domestically.
"We’ve seen that there’s less price sensitivity when it comes to holiday gifting.”Saadia Bryant, Gemline (asi/56070)
In what’s perhaps a twist, Juniper is also experiencing an uptick in interest in products made from real leather. “We’ve watched real leather sales go down quite a lot, and we’re now starting to see that turn around and come back,” explained Langley. “I’m not going to go into politics of leather, but there are arguments that it’s starting to win a little bit of traction back, as people recognize that it’s a byproduct of the meat industry and will last a lifetime and be cherished as high quality.”
Watson said Vantage Apparel always gives “good, better, best” options, but that as holiday gifting commerce takes hold, the firm leans heavier into “better, best.”
“Holiday gifts are a year’s long opportunity to give thanks for and incentivize employees so that oftentimes the end-user’s willing to spend a little bit more than they’re traditionally used to,” Watson shared, his assessment in line with that of Bryant.
As for products, everything fleece is trending in the late Q3-into-Q4 holiday rush, as blankets and wearables in the material that offer super comfortability predominate. At retail, unisex/gender-neutral apparel has been in vogue; that’s influencing buying preferences in promo, Watson says. Color trends are top of mind too.
“Cream, eggshell and natural color have really started to make their way into the industry,” said Watson, “so you’ll see a lot more items in our space that are leaning into those colorways.”
Sales in a Complicated Global Marketplace
Panelists also talked about sales performance during the candid discussion.
ASI Research shows that promo distributor sales in North America and many but not all European countries increased in 2023, but did so tepidly. In North America, performance was muted during the first part of 2024, with distributors’ collective sales decreasing 0.9% in Q1 and rising just 1.3% in Q2.
Economic struggles in Germany – the biggest national economy in Europe and promo’s largest market for sales – have weighed upon the results of industry firms there. Halfar’s company is down about 6% to 7% from 2023 so far in 2024. And that’s not all that bad compared to some compatriots, she said. “Everybody else is telling us about being 10% to 20% [down], which is really quite severe,” said Halfar. “Our neighbor countries are suffering, too.”
"This is going to be a lot more favorable holiday season than in years past.” Rob Watson, Vantage Apparel (asi/93390)
Juniper is experiencing a record-breaking sales year, thanks to a number of particularly large jobs, though the firm’s number of orders is lower year over year. “We seem to be hitting fewer but larger-value orders, which is a bit of a trend,” Langley said. “We’re noticing that brands are starting to select higher-quality products that probably last longer.”
While the sales jump is encouraging, Langley said the promo market – and business more broadly in the United Kingdom – is growing more concerned about what’s going on in London. “We have a new government that seems to be keen to talk our economy down, which is causing a little bit of unrest and a little bit of uncertainty,” he said.
"We have to shout messaging that merch can be part of the solution.” Andrew Langley, Juniper Trading Products Ltd., on promo’s role in the global sustainability movement
Bryant said Gemline’s 2024 sales are trending in line with industrywide performance in North America – namely, plus or minus a percent compared to the prior year. In the reverse of Langley’s experience, Gemline has seen “our average order value go down, but our number of orders go up,” Bryant shared.
Meanwhile, Vantage Apparel is up “significantly over last year” in terms of sales, said Watson. He attributed that, in part, to a focus on providing more robust technology solutions, including webstores. He expects a strong close to the year as large opportunities that have been in the works for a while come to fruition and as the holiday buying season ramps up. “This is going to be a lot more favorable holiday season than in years past,” Watson asserted.
Addressing Regulation & Perception
The marketplace is always changing, presenting new challenges and opportunities for promo. Sometimes, these things can be one and the same.
For instance: Panelists discussed a current of perception that, while not pervasive, has gained some traction – particularly, that promotional products are an inherently unsustainable medium, landfill fodder that should be eschewed.
Promo must, panelists agreed, counteract the anti-merch sentiment not just with apologies but with action, including offering high-quality, longer-lasting products made from more eco-friendly materials in a manner that lessens environmental impact, all while operating within a supply chain in which workers are treated humanely and paid fairly. Such efforts are well underway in the industry and are poised to expand.
“We have to shout messaging that merch can be part of the solution,” said Langley – a theme that, if validated by action, will open doors for sales.
“We have to promote merchandising items as reasonable and sustainable.” Kathrin Halfar, Halfar
Halfar said the focus on quality products in Germany has already helped improve the industry’s perception there. “Because products have become much better, there’s more acceptance,” she said. “We have to promote merchandising items as reasonable and sustainable.”
Panelists also discussed the increasingly global nature of promo. More cross-border business seems to be happening, certainly for European-based companies among various nations there, and from North American firms providing order fulfillment into Europe. “We’re seeing a lot more demand for programs to be shipped internationally,” said Watson.
Panelists also focused on regulation, discussing initiatives like the efforts afoot in the European Union to intensify requirements regarding transparency on product origin and composition. While it figures to be complex, and a potential significant challenge for industry firms, especially smaller ones, promo will need to adapt.
North American suppliers are already anticipating that transparency regulations will make their way, in some form, across the Atlantic – and they’re taking action. Gemline, for instance, has added product-level carbon footprint data to more than 100 products.
“We did this,” said Bryant, “because we feel like it’s the right thing to do.”
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