Ontario Premier Doug Ford has finally announced a provincial reopening plan set for next month, based on favorable vaccination rates, and decreasing case counts and hospitalizations. Canada’s most populous province has been under lockdown since early April, which will remain in place until at least June 2.

Called “The Roadmap to Reopen,” the three-phase plan is set for mid-June, with at least 21 days between each step. But for the first phase to be implemented, which will allow for slightly larger outdoor gatherings and some nonessential retail to open, at least 60% of people must have their first vaccine dose. Right now, the number stands at about 50% of adults.

A vaccination clinic at Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto in April; the first phase of the province’s reopening plan won’t begin until at least 60% of Ontarians have had at least one dose.

The second phase would allow for increased numbers at outdoor gatherings, as well as outdoor dining and limited personal care services, though this depends on at least 70% vaccinated with 20% fully vaccinated. The third and final phase at least 21 days later, which requires 70% to 80% of people to be vaccinated and 25% fully vaccinated, would allow for indoor dining, more nonessential retail to open, indoor meetings, museum visits and the like.

If all goes according to plan, officials say, the province will enter the third phase by late July, but all nonessential businesses will remain closed until the official start of the first phase. Schools have no official open date yet, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced that the Canada-U.S. border will be closed for at least another month. He says the government will have enough vaccines to administer to every eligible adult by the summer, and by September, enough for everyone to be fully vaccinated.

Upon the announcement of the three-phase plan last week, and in anticipation of the long weekend for Victoria Day, Ford said outdoor facilities in Ontario like skate parks, tennis courts and golf courses would be allowed to reopen on May 22, and outdoor gatherings could be increased to five people.

Effective May 22, at 12:01 a.m., Ontario will safely reopen outdoor recreational amenities, including:
⛳️ Golf courses
🎾 Tennis courts
🛹 Skateboarding parks
⚽️ Sports fields

Additionally, outdoor limits will be expanded to five people to allow for reopened amenities. pic.twitter.com/W3m7EgKBB4

— Doug Ford (@fordnation) May 20, 2021

Amanda Dudek, owner of A Dudek Promotions (asi/101207) in Maple, ON, says she’s optimistic for the coming months. Now that there’s at least a tentative timeline in play, businesses can start their reopening plans, which is good for promo.

“I’ve seen an uptick in sales this month already, and I’m hopeful it’ll continue into the summer,” she says. “But until we have a consistent opening of businesses, paired with a decrease in COVID-19 cases and an increase in vaccinations, I don’t foresee clients being all in with hedging forward.”

Ahead of reopening, Dudek has been reaching out to clients to remind them to order soon before things get busy and product becomes even harder to procure. “We’ve been working on a larger social media presence to attract new clients as well,” she says, “and we’ll be rolling that out in the coming weeks.”

Meanwhile, Scott Hulbert, managing director of ideavation (asi/229801) in Toronto, is skeptical about the plan. Ontario has essentially been under lockdown since the third week of November, he says, and won’t even begin to reopen until the middle of June. With the numerous lockdown extensions the province has faced over the past six months, he’s uncertain about the actual launch date of the first phase.

“It’s a carrot they’re dangling in front of us,” he says. “What happens if we don’t get to the vaccination levels they want to see? What happens if this continues until September when cold and flu season hits? We’re not seeing any business opportunity out of these announcements. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.”

While Hulbert’s business is back to pre-pandemic sales levels thanks to continued demand for corporate company stores, kitting/fulfillment and incentive programs, clients are still skittish. Right now, across the board among Hulbert’s peers in the promo industry, 90% of business is coming from 10% of customers.

“That’s a scary thing,” says Hulbert. “Companies here are either off-the-charts in performance or completely devastated, like hospitality, salons and gyms. There’s no halfway. We’re looking at 2022 for a recovery and I’m optimistic we’ll see a promo boom, but when and what does that look like?”

The announcements from Ontario come as provinces like Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador see rising cases. Meanwhile, case counts and hospitalizations in places like Alberta (which recently addressed a third wave) and Quebec are dropping.